Easing Yemen’s humanitarian crisis: Uncertain outcome of deal between Saudi Arabia, Houthis

In a goodwill gesture to end the eight-year-old war in Yemen between the Iranian-backed Houthi group and the Saudi-backed transitional government, a new deal for a truce and ceasefire is close to being reached.

Saudi Arabia has dispatched a peace delegation to the Houthi-controlled capital, Sanaa, to hold negotiations. This step comes under Omani mediation to end the worst humanitarian crisis in history, as more than 21.6 million people in Yemen (two-thirds of the population) are in need of assistance, according to the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) on March 29. The war has also deprived more than 2 million children from attending school, according to UNICEF figures.

Additionally, the war led to the spread of several diseases, like cholera, diphtheria, measles, polio, and dengue, due to “a devastated health system” and the “disruption of water and sanitation networks,” WHO said on March 22, 2022.

According to Yemeni journalist and activist Hamza Al-Jubihi, the truce will positively affect the humanitarian situation in Yemen, as it will work on calming the atmosphere and facilitating the access of humanitarian aid, especially in the Houthi-controlled areas where NGOs always face obstacles and difficulties.

“In general, a truce helps to improve the humanitarian situation to some extent in case it actually lasts. [However,] there is doubt about the commitment of the Houthis, as we are used to [seeing] the Houthis break [their] promises,” Jubihi said in comments to Jusoor Post.

The negotiations also come after China brokered a historic deal last month between the two main regional rivals – Saudi Arabia and Iran. In turn, that deal positively affected the Omani-brokered talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Yemen.

Signs to end the war

The Saudi delegation arrived in Sanaa on April 8 to meet with Houthi leaders, on the same day that a prisoner swap was accomplished between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. Under UN brokerage, Saudi Arabia released 13 Houthis, who arrived home on Saturday, for a Saudi citizen released by the Iranian-backed group. 

In March, the Houthis and the Yemeni government announced that they had reached an agreement during negotiations in Bern to exchange more than 880 prisoners, in a new sign of hope with the acceleration of efforts to end the war.

“Today, we received 13 prisoners and detainees at Sanaa International Airport who were released by the Saudi authorities in exchange for a Saudi prisoner we released earlier.

We hope that this step will be a prelude to the implementation of the agreed deal at the end of this week, God willing,” said the head of the Houthis’ Committee for Prisoners, Abdul Qadir Al-Murtada, on his Twitter account on Saturday.

استقبلنا اليوم في مطار صنعاء الدولي 13 أسيراً ومعتقلاً أفرجت عنهم السلطات السعودية في مقابل أسير سعودي أفرجنا عنه في وقتٍ سابق.
ونأمل أن تكون هذه الخطوة مقدمة لتنفيذ الصفقة المتفق عليها نهاية هذا الإسبوع ان شاءالله. pic.twitter.com/eX1r6WQcXO

— عبدالقادر المرتضى (@abdulqadermortd) April 8, 2023

Also, the official spokesman for the Yemeni transitional government delegation, Majed Fadael, said that “all arrangements [regarding the prisoner swap] have been completed... to implement the agreed-upon exchange process.” He added in a post on Twitter on April 11 that the first day of the prisoner exchange process will be on April 13 through reciprocal flights of the Red Cross between Sanaa and Aden.

A source from the Houthis, who spoke on condition of anonymity to AFP, said that both sides agreed in principle on reaching a six-month truce during which a three-month talk would be held to reach a “two-year transition” in Yemen. The same terms were also reported by the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat.

The Kingdom’s delegation led by Saudi Ambassador to Yemen Mohammed Al Jaber, along with the Omani mediation delegation, held direct talks with Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi in Sanaa on April 9 to “stabilize the truce and ceasefire.”

“Continuing the Kingdom’s efforts to end the Yemeni crisis, and in support of the Saudi Initiative of 2021 to reach a comprehensive political solution in Yemen, I visit Sana’a along with a delegation from the brotherly Sultanate of Oman to stabilize the truce and ceasefire,..” Al Jaber said in a tweet.

1️⃣ Continuing the Kingdom’s efforts to end the Yemeni crisis, and in support the Saudi Initiative of 2021 to reach a comprehensive political solution in Yemen, I visit Sana’a along with a delegation from the brotherly Sultanate of Oman to stabilize the truce and ceasefire,… pic.twitter.com/xqPty81Ds9

— محمد ال جابر (@mohdsalj) April 10, 2023

Since 2015, Yemen has experienced a proxy war between the Iranian-backed Houthis and the Gulf-backed and internationally-recognized government in Aden after the Houthis attacked the capital, Sanaa. The war has pushed the Yemeni people, particularly in areas controlled by the Houthis, like Sanaa, Taz, and Hodeidah, to suffer from famine and humanitarian crisis.

Uncertain outcome

The political activist Jubihi is cautious about the implementation of the deal, as “the Houthis create obstacles that undermine agreements and truces,” like happened previously. He noted that the Houthis only fulfill the directives of Iran.

In response to a question about whether the future of Yemen could be like Lebanon or Iraq, Jubihi said that the situation in Yemen differs from those two countries, where Shiites make up a large percentage of the population, “so there must be a balance in the system of government.”

Jubihi noted that the majority of Yemenis are Sunni and tend to follow the Shafi’i school of jurisprudential thought, while the Shiites follow the Zaidi school and make up about a quarter of the population. As for the Twelver Shiite sect that is common in Iran, with which the Houthis are aligned, it hardly reaches 1% of the population of Yemen and therefore will not have a share in ruling the country, he said.